- Contemplating about spacefaring civilization

SpaceX mass into orbit in 2022 with Starships in comparison with Falcon9 in 2021

SpaceX put around 300t mass into orbit in 2021 with Falcon9 and it required 33 launches. Quite a lot and probably it's maximum for Falcon9 per year with current launchpads and SpaceX team. To launch more it will probably require to spend more money but its spending will be rather ineffective. Falcon9 probably fully used its capacity for launches per year and mass to orbit. It starting to look obsolete in the background of the dawn of Starship system launches. Let's compare it with 2022 cadence of the Starship system.

SpaceX planned about 12 missions of Starship to orbit. With a full load, there could be 1200 t mass to orbit. It's 4 times more than Falcon9 mass to orbit in 2021. It won't be so much because probably first launches will be empty or almost empty. But half of those launches probably will be dedicated to Starlink satellites. And if SpaceX will decide to do so we may get about 25%-50% of the capacity use of Starship. And that still will be 300-600t of mass to orbit in 2022. And don't forget that Starship still will be in testing mode during 2022. It won't be maturing probably until 2024 or even 2025.

2022 will probably be the year of a technology demonstration for the Starship system. But even the first launches of Starship will show how obsolete all current rockets. It wasn't so until now. Starship looked like a very promising but rather questioning technology. Will it be reliable, is stainless steel will really show itself as good material for rockets. Will Raptor be working well during many launches, considering its near the limit parameters of the combustion chamber?




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